The 2021 NFL Draft is coming up this week- so I thought I might look at how last year's rookie class did in the 2020 NFL season and project some key statistics for the 2021 season. I looked at 4 players: Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa.

I’ve written some previous articles on my dive into bayesian statistics which can be found here: https://medium.com/codex/bayesian-inference-of-nfl-tds-6d4b1251eeda or https://ecavan.medium.com/predicting-nfl-first-downs-453a683a827d.

Basically, bayesian inference works by taking your prior beliefs and updating them using observed data. For example: I might think a coin is rigged, and so my prior might be (0.8…

Elijah Cavan

Passions: Physics, reading, data science

Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store